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The ICC Issue and Raila’s Political Future

Support the ICC cases drops to 39%

The support for the International Criminal Court (ICC) has declined according to the latest Ipsos political poll.  This survey was conducted in July 2013, less than 90days after Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto were declared President and Deputy President respectively.  Kenyatta faces five counts of crimes of humanity before the ICC, while, in a separate case before the court, his deputy William Samoei Ruto faces three counts of crimes against humanity. Ruto is charged in the same case as radio journalist Joshua arap Sang, who also faces three counts of crimes against humanity.

Support for the ICC has declined over time, in October 2011, just after the September confirmation of hearings trials, support stood at 59%, in April 2012, after the confirmation of charges on 4 of the 6 suspects, it declined further to 55% and in June 2013 went down to 39%, just 3 months after 2 of the 4 individuals facing trials at the ICC were declared winners of the March 2013 general election as president and deputy.

The July 2013 survey indicates that respondents were nearly even divided between those who want the cases to remain at

  • The Hague (39%),
  • be dealt with in Kenya or in the region (32%), and;
  • be dismissed (29%).

Support for the 'Hague' option varies considerably among geographical regions. Support for The Hague is highest in Nyanza at 70% and Coast at 68%. Support in Rift Valley and Central is low at 24% and 7% respectively.

The three main reasons for supporting trials at The Hague were: The trials will end impunity/prevent future violence (39%), lack of faith in the Kenya judiciary to handle these cases (34%), and only through the ICC can there be justice for the victims (24%).

 

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